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My Taylor Wimpey (LSE: TW) shares have taken a beating, plunging 22% over the previous yr. But after I crunch the numbers, they nonetheless seem like they’re price contemplating to me. However are they?
A phrase of warning. I first purchased shares within the FTSE 100 housebuilder in 2023. In that comparatively quick interval, they’ve been extremely risky. At one level, I used to be sitting on a 40% paper achieve. Now I’m down 5%.
Greater rates of interest have hit purchaser confidence and made mortgages dearer, hitting demand. And that’s on prime of long-term affordability points, to not point out the slowing economic system. Greater inflation’s pushed up labour and materials prices, additional squeezing margins. It’s lots to tackle.
Is that this FTSE 100 inventory really a cut price?
Like a lot of its rivals, Taylor Wimpey reported a drop in property completions final yr. The board responded by providing incentives and reductions to consumers, once more shrinking margins.
But the steadiness sheet stays robust. Taylor Wimpey boasts a strong land financial institution, low debt and a disciplined strategy to managing prices.
With a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.6 instances, the inventory appears low cost in comparison with its historic common and friends. That’s a key motive why I see a chance right here.
The UK nonetheless faces a continual housing scarcity, supporting demand. The Financial institution of England’s anticipated to chop rates of interest two or 3 times this yr. If it does, mortgage prices might fall and consumers return, boosting gross sales volumes and profitability.
None of that is assured. Markets anticipated six rate of interest cuts final yr. We bought simply two. Inflation stays sticky. Donald Trump’s tax cuts and commerce tariffs might preserve it that method.
In its buying and selling replace on 16 January, Taylor Wimpey mentioned full-year UK completions have been in the direction of the higher finish of its steerage vary, with working revenue in keeping with expectations. We’ll know extra when ultimate outcomes printed on 27 February.
The group ended 2025 with a strong £2bn order guide, representing 7,312 houses. Nonetheless, the board additionally cautioned that Funds hikes to employer’s Nationwide Insurance coverage and the Minimal Wage will push up prices from April.
A superb dividend yield
I haven’t talked about the dividend but. That’s an enormous promoting level. The forecast yield for 2025 is 8.5%. The board coverage is to pay 7.5% of web belongings every year, sometimes round £250m.
I don’t count on fast progress. Final February, the board lifted the dividend by a fraction of a penny, from 4.78p to 4.79p. Given the sky-high yield, it’s exhausting to complain.
Taylor Wimpey stays money generative. It’s weathered earlier downturns whereas sustaining enticing shareholder returns. But when issues get actually unhealthy, it may very well be lower.
The 16 analysts providing one-year share worth forecasts have produced a median goal of simply over 148p. If right, that’s a rise of round 27% from at this time. Mixed with that yield, this might give me a complete return of 35%. Fingers crossed!
For now, Taylor Wimpey stays a well-managed enterprise with long-term progress potential. Whereas dangers stay, significantly round rates of interest and shopper sentiment, its valuation appears compelling. I gained’t purchase although as I have already got an enormous stake. However I really feel the shares are price traders contemplating.
