Picture supply: Getty Pictures
The Barclays (LSE: BARC) share worth has been one of many greatest climbers within the FTSE 100 this 12 months, hovering 72% for the reason that begin of January.
I wish to make investments a bit extra within the monetary sector in early 2025. Proper now, I feel NatWest Group in all probability has the sting. However Barclays runs an in depth second, and issues may simply change by the point I’m prepared to purchase.
Extra to come back
Analysts are nonetheless very bullish over Barclays, placing out one of many strongest ‘purchase’ rankings I can see on the FTSE 100 proper now.
They’ve a modest share worth goal rise on the playing cards, of 9% to 288.5p. However that’s primarily based on the 12 months forward, and earnings forecasts proceed constructive past that.
We’re taking a look at a forecast price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of seven.5 this 12 months, dropping to five.5 by 2026 if forecasts come good. And in the event that they do, the present worth goal may prove to look considerably unambitious.
One factor that may flip me off is a dividend forecast to yield simply 3.3% this 12 months, and solely 3.8% by 2026. That’s largely what places NatWest forward in my estimation in the mean time, with its 6% yield anticipated in 2026.
Strong outlook
Whereas Barclays’ isn’t the most important dividend yield within the sector, the financial institution does goal to return more money to shareholders within the coming years.
At Q3 time, it spoke of a “plan to return a minimum of £10bn of capital to shareholders between 2024 and 2026, by way of dividends and share buybacks, with a continued choice for buybacks“.
That’s price greater than 1 / 4 of Barclays total market capitalisation. And I positively want shorter-term returns like this to go through buybacks slightly than, say, particular dividends.
However what would possibly get in the way in which of those upbeat hopes?
Not plain crusing
There’s nonetheless quite a few potential hurdles within the street forward.
Falling rates of interest ought to minimize into lending margins. And Barclays is uncovered to US charges too, through its worldwide banking arm. Nonetheless, any regulatory relaxations by the incoming Trump administration would possibly assist.
Additionally, these forecasts for this 12 months and the subsequent two would possibly look good. However when’s the final time we are able to keep in mind banking forecasts going as deliberate, with out interruption, for 3 years in a row? I’m undecided I’ve ever seen it.
Barclays has been by way of change up to now 12 months. It’s introduced in some value reducing and refocused on key enterprise points. That needs to be good in the long run, but it surely does deliver uncertainty to the get together.
And, regardless of my love of buybacks, I do assume the comparatively low Barclays’ dividend yield may drive traders to others within the sector. The dividend is, in any case, one of many headline measures that strike us first.
So will Barclays be my high banking alternative for early 2025? On these ideas, in all probability not. However lots may occur between at times.
